The last 20 years in solar power: what a long, strange, trip it’s been

By Eric Goodwin, Vice-President of Business Development, OMCO Solar

When we talk about the evolution and growth of the solar (and now storage) industry in the U.S. over the past 20 years, the famous lyrics from the Grateful Dead ring true to describe our journey to get to where we are as an industry and our path forward.

“A strange trip indeed it’s been”

As of 2025, solar is now 79 percent of new energy capacity in the U.S., according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and energy consulting firm, Wood MacKenzie—and even without ITC incentives, it is now the lowest cost form of energy and fastest to deploy, according to Lazard and Wood Mackenzie. Solar & storage is needed more than ever with grid capacity issues, data centers/AI, and the rising costs of energy for consumers.

In looking back on where we have been and what lies ahead, my focus will be on the commercial and utility scale solar markets (although residential has had a similar journey).

I truly believe that our industry does not get the credit it deserves from the innovation that has been driven, year upon year, when you look at cost vs. reliability and efficiency of products and power plants.

Modules

Module technology is a great starting point for the changes our industry has seen over the years. Module costs have gone down almost 90 percent from 2010 to 2024, (https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/92536.pdf), and we have gone from 350W modules in 2017 to 750+W modules in 2026. Technology innovation with bifacial modules, large form factor modules, and ongoing improvements in thin film technology are notable.

Since the passing of the IRA tax credits, we have witnessed a module manufacturing renaissance in the U.S. We’ve seen investments to build and expand across the whole solar module supply chain, including ingots, wafers, and cells. 

In 2024, cell manufacturing was onshored for the first time since 2019, and additional cell manufacturing capacity has come online throughout 2025 and is expected to grow in 2026. To date, there has been the strongest growth in module manufacturing, growing from 8 GW prior to the federal manufacturing tax credits to 65.1 GW as of February 2026, which is an increase of more than 700 percent, according to SEIA.

Racking (Trackers & Fixed Tilt)

This is the OMCO Solar world I live in. Our team has seen firsthand as well as been involved with the incredible transformation the racking space has taken over the years.

Twenty years ago, most of the ground mount projects were fixed tilt, now that has flipped to more than 80 percent now tracker vs. fixed. What factors have driven this shift?

It’s clear that there is still a strong need for fixed tilt projects with challenging terrain, O&M considerations, and prevailing wage requirements. Also, with the improvements in battery storage, some PPA’s can now be met with storage and fixed tilt racking.

The shift to trackers has been led by the fundamental efficiency increase from tracking vs. fixed of 18 to 30 percent depending on where your project is located (various sources). The focus here is on single axis trackers as dual axis, while still in development, are still too costly with high O&M vs. single axis trackers and are rarely deployed.

Key tracker innovations in recent years and currently:

• Terrain following trackers
• Smart tracker controllers (LoRa, Zigbee platforms)
• Extreme weather stow algorithms (dealing with hail, wind, and snow, sometimes at the same time)
• DC trackers in cold climates (no AC trenching needed)
• Robotics & module installation

In summary, trackers are getting better every year with some market leaders expanding their offerings beyond just the tracker towards a complete system approach.

Battery Storage (BESS)

Battery storage is the future of growth and 20 years ago it was in its infancy, using Nickel (NiMH), low reliability, high-cost technology. Wow, how far have we come! Now a vast majority of new solar projects include battery storage, and the importance of storage is clear as storage was one of the only incentives left in place from the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill).

The rise of Lithium-Ion Technology in the 2000’s and pioneers such as Tesla have been instrumental in the evolution of this technology. The ongoing development of solar battery technology reflects the broader evolution of renewable energy technologies, marked by continuous improvements in efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability. From the early use of lead-acid batteries to the cutting-edge innovations in solid-state and flow batteries, each advancement has brought us closer to a reliable and sustainable energy future.

Power Plants

One notable change in the past 20 years is how power plants are built, operated and optimized to support the grid. The duration of the power plant lifecycle and warranty has increased (10 years in the past to up to 40 years now). Also, the scale and size of plants have grown exponentially.  Twenty years ago, 5 to 10 MW plants were considered large, now we are seeing plants up to 800 MW to 1 GW in size being built.

All these improvements early, make solar and storage the fastest type of energy to be deployed. It’s not even close.

Lastly, the “repowering” of older and poor performing assets is now a growing new market bringing power plants back to life.

“Where do we go from here?”

While I think we can all agree that the short-term path has no shortage of headwinds ahead, I see the following as our biggest challenges:

Headwinds

Current administration energy policy:

• Tariffs (drives uncertainty, supply chain impact)
• ITC phase out (OBBB)
• We say our goal is U.S. energy dominance, but not reflect this and actually makes China stronger.
• Misinformation about solar and storage/grid reliability
• Grid capacity and interconnection
• Cybersecurity and external threats to the power grid
• U.S. manufacturing capacity for many solar (BOS) components (China still dominant)

With all of these challenges though, there are still so many incredible positives and opportunities that outweigh our obstacles such as:

Tailwinds

• Data centers/AI and tremendous power needs
• Domestic manufacturing growth is a priority for this administration (280,000 solar jobs in the U.S. and growing, according to SEIA)
• There is more bipartisan support for solar/storage than ever
• Some of the smartest people in the world are my colleagues
• We are seeing emerging growth markets such as data centers, agrivoltaics, repowering, floating solar, and off grid (small power/high value)

I am confident that the next 20 years will continue to define energy independence in the U.S. and create a growing industry of U.S. jobs and innovation.

So, as this strange trip continues, I am honored to be on this ride with you all and look forward to the future. Let’s go!

Eric Goodwin, Vice-President of Business Development at OMCO Solar (omcosolar.com), has been involved in the renewables industry for more than 15 years. OMCO Solar is a leading manufacturer of solar tracker and fixed tilt mounting solutions for community, commercial, and utility-scale projects. Since 2008, OMCO Solar has delivered over 13 GW of factory-direct, high-quality solar racking systems across the United States, with a manufacturing footprint spanning coast-to-coast.

Q2 2026